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Broń Radom vs Wissa Szczuczyn — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Broń Radom
Broń Radom
FT
1 – 0
Wissa Szczuczyn
Wissa Szczuczyn
10/8/2021III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 12Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Broń Radom59%
×Draw22%
Wissa Szczuczyn18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Broń Radom
1.85
Wissa Szczuczyn
0.91

Broń Radom creates 103% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 18 away

creates per match

Broń Radom
1.48
Wissa Szczuczyn
0.56

allows per match

Broń Radom
1.25
Wissa Szczuczyn
2.22

finishing

Broń Radom+0.00on par
Wissa Szczuczyn+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Broń Radom ↓

Wissa Szczuczyn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Broń Radom or draw
82%
Broń Radom or Wissa Szczuczyn
78%
Draw or Wissa Szczuczyn
41%

Winning margin

Broń Radom wins by 2+
35%
Wissa Szczuczyn wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Broń Radom 1+ goals
84%
Broń Radom 2+ goals
55%
Broń Radom 3+ goals
28%
Wissa Szczuczyn 1+ goals
60%
Wissa Szczuczyn 2+ goals
23%
Wissa Szczuczyn 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Broń Radom (draw refunded)
77%
Wissa Szczuczyn (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Broń Radom at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.25 · 103 matches

Wissa Szczuczyn away — creates 0.56, concedes 2.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Broń Radom attack 1.48 + Wissa Szczuczyn defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.85

Wissa Szczuczyn attack 0.56 + Broń Radom defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Broń Radom scores more
59%
level
22%
Wissa Szczuczyn scores more
18%

Broń Radom at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Broń Radom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Broń Radom vs Wissa Szczuczyn

Broń Radom beat Wissa Szczuczyn 1-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on October 8, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza in Radom.