Broń Radom 0–1 Ursus Warszawa: Result & Stats

Broń Radom

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Ursus Warszawa

4/5/2023

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 19Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Broń Radom43%

×Draw25%

Ursus Warszawa32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Broń RadomExpected goals in this matchUrsus Warszawa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.31

Broń Radom

1.57

Ursus Warszawa

1.31

Broń Radom creates 20% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 53 away

1.48

creates per match

1.38

1.25

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Broń Radom

1.48

Ursus Warszawa

1.38

allows per match

Broń Radom

1.25

Ursus Warszawa

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Broń Radom+0.00on par

Ursus Warszawa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Broń Radom ↓

Ursus Warszawa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Broń Radom or draw

68%

Broń Radom or Ursus Warszawa

75%

Draw or Ursus Warszawa

57%

Winning margin

Broń Radom wins by 2+

22%

Ursus Warszawa wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Broń Radom 1+ goals

79%

Broń Radom 2+ goals

46%

Broń Radom 3+ goals

21%

Ursus Warszawa 1+ goals

73%

Ursus Warszawa 2+ goals

38%

Ursus Warszawa 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Broń Radom (draw refunded)

58%

Ursus Warszawa (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Broń Radom at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.25 · 103 matches

Ursus Warszawa away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.66 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Broń Radom attack 1.48 + Ursus Warszawa defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.57

Ursus Warszawa attack 1.38 + Broń Radom defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Broń Radom scores more

43%

level

25%

Ursus Warszawa scores more

32%

Broń Radom at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Broń Radom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff