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Broń Radom vs Jagiellonia II — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Broń Radom
Broń Radom
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Jagiellonia II
Jagiellonia II
11/24/2023III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 18Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Broń Radom42%
×Draw25%
Jagiellonia II33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Broń Radom
1.57
Jagiellonia II
1.36

Broń Radom creates 15% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 103 away

creates per match

Broń Radom
1.48
Jagiellonia II
1.48

allows per match

Broń Radom
1.25
Jagiellonia II
1.67

finishing

Broń Radom+0.00on par
Jagiellonia II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Broń Radom ↓

Jagiellonia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Broń Radom or draw
67%
Broń Radom or Jagiellonia II
75%
Draw or Jagiellonia II
58%

Winning margin

Broń Radom wins by 2+
21%
Jagiellonia II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Broń Radom 1+ goals
79%
Broń Radom 2+ goals
46%
Broń Radom 3+ goals
21%
Jagiellonia II 1+ goals
74%
Jagiellonia II 2+ goals
39%
Jagiellonia II 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Broń Radom (draw refunded)
56%
Jagiellonia II (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Broń Radom at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.25 · 103 matches

Jagiellonia II away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.67 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Broń Radom attack 1.48 + Jagiellonia II defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.57

Jagiellonia II attack 1.48 + Broń Radom defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Broń Radom scores more
42%
level
25%
Jagiellonia II scores more
33%

Broń Radom at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Broń Radom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Broń Radom vs Jagiellonia II

Broń Radom beat Jagiellonia II 1-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on November 24, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego in Radom.