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Broń Radom vs Huragan Morąg — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Broń Radom
Broń Radom
FT
0 – 2
Huragan Morąg
Huragan Morąg
10/31/2020III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 13Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Broń Radom52%
×Draw23%
Huragan Morąg25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Broń Radom
1.85
Huragan Morąg
1.23

Broń Radom creates 50% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 18 away

creates per match

Broń Radom
1.48
Huragan Morąg
1.22

allows per match

Broń Radom
1.25
Huragan Morąg
2.22

finishing

Broń Radom+0.00on par
Huragan Morąg+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Broń Radom ↓

Huragan Morąg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Broń Radom or draw
75%
Broń Radom or Huragan Morąg
77%
Draw or Huragan Morąg
48%

Winning margin

Broń Radom wins by 2+
29%
Huragan Morąg wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Broń Radom 1+ goals
84%
Broń Radom 2+ goals
55%
Broń Radom 3+ goals
28%
Huragan Morąg 1+ goals
71%
Huragan Morąg 2+ goals
35%
Huragan Morąg 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Broń Radom (draw refunded)
67%
Huragan Morąg (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Broń Radom at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.25 · 103 matches

Huragan Morąg away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Broń Radom attack 1.48 + Huragan Morąg defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.85

Huragan Morąg attack 1.22 + Broń Radom defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Broń Radom scores more
52%
level
23%
Huragan Morąg scores more
25%

Broń Radom at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Broń Radom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Broń Radom 0–2 Huragan Morąg

Huragan Morąg beat Broń Radom 2-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on October 31, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza in Radom.