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Bromsgrove Sporting vs Stourbridge — League #931 2026

Bromsgrove Sporting
Bromsgrove Sporting
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Stourbridge
Stourbridge
12/26/2024League #931League #931 · Southern Central - 22The Victoria Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Bromsgrove Sporting52%
×Draw28%
Stourbridge20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bromsgrove Sporting
1.36
Stourbridge
0.74

Bromsgrove Sporting creates 84% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Bromsgrove Sporting
1.33
Stourbridge
0.80

allows per match

Bromsgrove Sporting
0.67
Stourbridge
1.40

finishing

Bromsgrove Sporting+0.00on par
Stourbridge+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bromsgrove Sporting ↓

Stourbridge →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Bromsgrove Sporting or draw
80%
Bromsgrove Sporting or Stourbridge
72%
Draw or Stourbridge
48%

Winning margin

Bromsgrove Sporting wins by 2+
25%
Stourbridge wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Bromsgrove Sporting 1+ goals
74%
Bromsgrove Sporting 2+ goals
39%
Bromsgrove Sporting 3+ goals
16%
Stourbridge 1+ goals
52%
Stourbridge 2+ goals
17%
Stourbridge 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Bromsgrove Sporting (draw refunded)
72%
Stourbridge (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bromsgrove Sporting at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Stourbridge away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bromsgrove Sporting attack 1.33 + Stourbridge defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.36

Stourbridge attack 0.80 + Bromsgrove Sporting defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Bromsgrove Sporting scores more
52%
level
28%
Stourbridge scores more
20%

Bromsgrove Sporting at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Bromsgrove Sporting will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bromsgrove Sporting vs Stourbridge

Bromsgrove Sporting beat Stourbridge 2-0 in League #931 on December 26, 2024.

The match was played at The Victoria Ground in Bromsgrove, Worcestershire.