Brommapojkarna W vs Häcken W: Preview & Prediction

Brommapojkarna W

Preview

12:00

Häcken W

8/15/2026

Damallsvenskan · Round 14Grimsta IP

Big match

62%

Häcken W

model favours

18%20%62%

Brommapojkarna W score first in only 13% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–2

likely score

64%

over 2.5 goals

60%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Brommapojkarna W18%

×Draw20%

Häcken W62%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Brommapojkarna WExpected goals in this matchHäcken W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

2.22

Brommapojkarna W

1.11

Häcken W

2.22

Häcken W creates 100% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 58 away

1.58

creates per match

2.28

2.17

allows per match

0.64

creates per match

Brommapojkarna W

1.58

Häcken W

2.28

allows per match

Brommapojkarna W

2.17

Häcken W

0.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brommapojkarna W+0.00on par

Häcken W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brommapojkarna W ↓

Häcken W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–29%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Brommapojkarna W or draw

38%

Brommapojkarna W or Häcken W

80%

Draw or Häcken W

82%

Winning margin

Brommapojkarna W wins by 2+

7%

Häcken W wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

Brommapojkarna W 1+ goals

67%

Brommapojkarna W 2+ goals

30%

Brommapojkarna W 3+ goals

10%

Häcken W 1+ goals

89%

Häcken W 2+ goals

65%

Häcken W 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

Brommapojkarna W (draw refunded)

23%

Häcken W (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brommapojkarna W at home — creates 1.58, concedes 2.17 · 59 matches

Häcken W away — creates 2.28, concedes 0.64 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brommapojkarna W attack 1.58 + Häcken W defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 1.11

Häcken W attack 2.28 + Brommapojkarna W defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Brommapojkarna W scores more

18%

level

20%

Häcken W scores more

62%

Häcken W at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Häcken W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Häcken W have won 3 in a row
Häcken W score first in only 25% of matches
Häcken W have won 9 of the last 9 meetings
73% of Brommapojkarna W’s matches go over 2.5 goals
Brommapojkarna W win just 10% against the top half (vs 38% against the bottom)
Style contrast — Brommapojkarna W play Direct / counter-attacking, Häcken W Attack-heavy