Brommapojkarna W 1–1 Djurgården W: Result & Stats

Brommapojkarna W

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Djurgården W

K. Andrup 78'

S. Johansson 25'

9/18/2022

Damallsvenskan · Round 20Grimsta IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Brommapojkarna W42%

×Draw23%

Djurgården W35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Brommapojkarna WExpected goals in this matchDjurgården W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.54

Brommapojkarna W

1.69

Djurgården W

1.54

Brommapojkarna W creates 10% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 80 away

1.58

creates per match

0.91

2.17

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Brommapojkarna W

1.58

Djurgården W

0.91

allows per match

Brommapojkarna W

2.17

Djurgården W

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brommapojkarna W+0.00on par

Djurgården W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brommapojkarna W ↓

Djurgården W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Brommapojkarna W or draw

65%

Brommapojkarna W or Djurgården W

77%

Draw or Djurgården W

58%

Winning margin

Brommapojkarna W wins by 2+

21%

Djurgården W wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Brommapojkarna W 1+ goals

82%

Brommapojkarna W 2+ goals

50%

Brommapojkarna W 3+ goals

24%

Djurgården W 1+ goals

79%

Djurgården W 2+ goals

45%

Djurgården W 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Brommapojkarna W (draw refunded)

54%

Djurgården W (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brommapojkarna W at home — creates 1.58, concedes 2.17 · 59 matches

Djurgården W away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.80 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brommapojkarna W attack 1.58 + Djurgården W defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.69

Djurgården W attack 0.91 + Brommapojkarna W defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Brommapojkarna W scores more

42%

level

23%

Djurgården W scores more

35%

Brommapojkarna W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Brommapojkarna W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

S. Johansson

45+5'

S. Johansson

61'

E. Bengtsson← A. Ahlberg

62'

S. Olai

66'

S. Lilja-Vidlund← S. Johansson

66'

A. Bergström← T. Lindwall

69'

J. Sjösten← T. Norlin

70'

E. Toivio← I. Bengtsson

77'

J. Walentowicz← L. Lundin

77'

P. Boakye← S. Olai

78'

K. Andrup

84'

D. Famili← F. Thörnqvist

Brommapojkarna

Djurgården

30

Lindahl

20

Lövgren

14

▼

6

22

8

2

11

10

▼

Lindwall

19

▼

Lundin

16

⚽

▼

26

4

15

5

2

21

▼

Norlin

27

Boriero

13

⚽

Andrup

18

▼

Bengtsson

8

▼

Ahlberg

14

▼

Thörnqvis

Manager: M. Fernández

61'▲E. Bengtsson←▼A. Ahlberg

69'▲J. Sjösten←▼T. Norlin

70'▲E. Toivio←▼I. Bengtsson

84'▲D. Famili←▼F. Thörnqvist

Brommapojkarna W substitutes

6Bengtsson9Sjösten11Toivio7Famili16Reidy1Talbot10Prakt

Manager: M. Pålsson

66'▲S. Lilja-Vidlund←▼S. Johansson

66'▲A. Bergström←▼T. Lindwall

77'▲J. Walentowicz←▼L. Lundin

77'▲P. Boakye←▼S. Olai

Djurgården W substitutes

17Lilja-Vidlund18Bergström5Walentowicz21Boakye12Wieder15Björklund24Hvarfner