Bromley 2–1 Shrewsbury: Result & Stats | League Two

Bromley

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Shrewsbury

K. Cameron 49'

M. Ifill 38'

B. Ihionvien 6'

4/7/2026

League Two · Round 42Hayes Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Bromley58%

×Draw23%

Shrewsbury18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BromleyExpected goals in this matchShrewsbury

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

0.85

Bromley

1.74

Shrewsbury

0.85

Bromley creates 105% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 12 away

2.27

creates per match

0.74

0.96

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Bromley

2.27

Shrewsbury

0.74

allows per match

Bromley

0.96

Shrewsbury

1.21

-0.47scores less than expected

finishing

-0.07on par

finishing

Bromley-0.47scores less

Shrewsbury-0.07on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bromley ↓

Shrewsbury →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Bromley or draw

82%

Bromley or Shrewsbury

77%

Draw or Shrewsbury

42%

Winning margin

Bromley wins by 2+

33%

Shrewsbury wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Bromley 1+ goals

82%

Bromley 2+ goals

52%

Bromley 3+ goals

25%

Shrewsbury 1+ goals

57%

Shrewsbury 2+ goals

21%

Shrewsbury 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Bromley (draw refunded)

76%

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bromley at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.96 · 10 matches

Shrewsbury away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.21 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bromley attack 2.27 + Shrewsbury defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.74

Shrewsbury attack 0.74 + Bromley defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Bromley scores more

58%

level

23%

Shrewsbury scores more

18%

Bromley at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Bromley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

48

B. Ihionvien

Shrewsbury · F

7.7

Match Events

6'

B. Ihionvien↳ T. Anderson

38'

45+1'

48'

49'

56'

63'

G. Lloyd← B. Ihionvien

64'

S. Clucas← T. Ojinnaka

79'

A. Scully← J. Marquis

79'

I. England← K. Berkoe

82'

J. Arthurs← A. Charles

82'

B. Krauhaus← D. Ajayi

84'

Sam Stubbs

90+1'

B. Ilunga← M. Pinnock

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BromleyShrewsbury

Overview

50%Possession50%

11Total Shots7

1.65Expected Goals (xG)0.57

6Corners1

7Fouls11

Shots

11Total Shots7

4On Target3

5Off Target4

2Blocked0

8Inside Box7

3Outside Box0

Passing

50%Possession50%

283Total Passes295

172Accurate Passes184

61%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

7Fouls11

0Yellow Cards3

0Offsides3