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Bromley vs Port Vale — League Two 2018

Bromley
Bromley
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Port Vale
Port Vale
12/14/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 20Hayes Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Bromley44%
×Draw27%
Port Vale29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bromley
1.41
Port Vale
1.09

Bromley creates 29% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 118 away

creates per match

Bromley
1.65
Port Vale
1.16

allows per match

Bromley
1.02
Port Vale
1.17

finishing

Bromley+0.00on par
Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bromley ↓

Port Vale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Bromley or draw
71%
Bromley or Port Vale
73%
Draw or Port Vale
56%

Winning margin

Bromley wins by 2+
21%
Port Vale wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Bromley 1+ goals
76%
Bromley 2+ goals
41%
Bromley 3+ goals
17%
Port Vale 1+ goals
66%
Port Vale 2+ goals
30%
Port Vale 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Bromley (draw refunded)
60%
Port Vale (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bromley at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.02 · 46 matches

Port Vale away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.17 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bromley attack 1.65 + Port Vale defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.41

Port Vale attack 1.16 + Bromley defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bromley scores more
44%
level
27%
Port Vale scores more
29%

Bromley at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bromley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
C. RipleyPort ValePort Vale · G
9.0

Match Events

22'
B. Cover← S. Hart
46'
R. Richards← R. Curtis
64'
R. Paton← A. Hackford
69'
O. Olomola← C. Congreve
90+2'
Ryan Croasdale
90+4'
J. Lowe← R. Harper

Possession

39%Bromley

Shots

24Bromley

Pass accuracy

47%Bromley

Statistics

BromleyPort
Overview
39%Possession61%
24Total Shots13
4Corners2
10Fouls9
Shots
24Total Shots13
7On Target4
10Off Target3
7Blocked6
17Inside Box8
7Outside Box5
Passing
39%Possession61%
263Total Passes431
168Accurate Passes312
64%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
2Saves6
Discipline
10Fouls9
0Yellow Cards1

League Two: Bromley 0–0 Port Vale

Bromley and Port Vale drew 0-0 in League Two on December 14, 2024.

Port Vale controlled possession (61%) and registered 13 shots to 24.

The match was played at Hayes Lane in London.