Bromley 1–0 Colchester: Result & Stats | League Two

Bromley

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Colchester

N. Kabamba 73'

3/21/2026

League Two · Round 39Hayes Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Bromley57%

×Draw22%

Colchester21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BromleyExpected goals in this matchColchester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

1.10

Bromley

1.97

Colchester

1.10

Bromley creates 79% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 12 away

2.18

creates per match

1.12

1.07

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Bromley

2.18

Colchester

1.12

allows per match

Bromley

1.07

Colchester

1.76

-0.43scores less than expected

finishing

+0.05on par

finishing

Bromley-0.43scores less

Colchester+0.05on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bromley ↓

Colchester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Bromley or draw

79%

Bromley or Colchester

78%

Draw or Colchester

43%

Winning margin

Bromley wins by 2+

34%

Colchester wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Bromley 1+ goals

86%

Bromley 2+ goals

58%

Bromley 3+ goals

31%

Colchester 1+ goals

67%

Colchester 2+ goals

30%

Colchester 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Bromley (draw refunded)

73%

Colchester (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bromley at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.07 · 8 matches

Colchester away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.76 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bromley attack 2.18 + Colchester defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.97

Colchester attack 1.12 + Bromley defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Bromley scores more

57%

level

22%

Colchester scores more

21%

Bromley at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Bromley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

G. Smith

Bromley · G

8.9

Match Events

10'

Z. Medley← J. Debrah

46'

M. Dinanga← J. Arthurs

55'

Tom Flanagan

63'

D. Ajayi← C. Whitely

65'

Ellis Iandolo

71'

O. Edwards← H. Anderson

71'

W. Goodwin← J. Williams

71'

S. Tovide← K. Lisbie

73'

N. Kabamba

80'

F. Barbrook← T. Flanagan

84'

Samson Tovide

86'

Oyindamola Ajayi

87'

R. Akachukwu← A. Read

90+3'

William Hondermarck

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BromleyColchester

Overview

42%Possession58%

19Total Shots18

3.30Expected Goals (xG)1.60

5Corners7

9Fouls6

Shots

19Total Shots18

6On Target5

5Off Target9

8Blocked4

15Inside Box14

4Outside Box4

Passing

42%Possession58%

280Total Passes408

182Accurate Passes302

65%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

9Fouls6

2Yellow Cards3

4Offsides1