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Broki vs SNL — Eerste Divisie 2019

Broki
Broki
FT
3 – 0
SNL
SNL
4/3/2022Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 6Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Broki44%
×Draw21%
SNL35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Broki
2.16
SNL
1.91

Broki creates 13% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 29 away

creates per match

Broki
1.56
SNL
1.21

allows per match

Broki
2.61
SNL
2.76

finishing

Broki+0.00on par
SNL+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Broki ↓

SNL →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Broki or draw
65%
Broki or SNL
79%
Draw or SNL
56%

Winning margin

Broki wins by 2+
25%
SNL wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Broki 1+ goals
88%
Broki 2+ goals
63%
Broki 3+ goals
36%
SNL 1+ goals
85%
SNL 2+ goals
57%
SNL 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Broki (draw refunded)
56%
SNL (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Broki at home — creates 1.56, concedes 2.61 · 61 matches

SNL away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.76 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Broki attack 1.56 + SNL defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 2.16

SNL attack 1.21 + Broki defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Broki scores more
44%
level
21%
SNL scores more
35%

Broki at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Broki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: Broki 3–0 SNL

Broki beat SNL 3-0 in Eerste Divisie on April 3, 2022.

The match was played at Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion in Paramaribo.