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Broki vs Flora Tallinn — Eerste Divisie 2019

Broki
Broki
FT
0 – 1
Flora Tallinn
Flora Tallinn
4/20/2023Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 6Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Broki38%
×Draw21%
Flora Tallinn41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Broki
1.91
Flora Tallinn
1.97

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 12 away

creates per match

Broki
1.56
Flora Tallinn
1.33

allows per match

Broki
2.61
Flora Tallinn
2.25

finishing

Broki+0.00on par
Flora Tallinn+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Broki ↓

Flora Tallinn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Broki or draw
59%
Broki or Flora Tallinn
79%
Draw or Flora Tallinn
62%

Winning margin

Broki wins by 2+
20%
Flora Tallinn wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Broki 1+ goals
85%
Broki 2+ goals
57%
Broki 3+ goals
30%
Flora Tallinn 1+ goals
86%
Flora Tallinn 2+ goals
58%
Flora Tallinn 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Broki (draw refunded)
49%
Flora Tallinn (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Broki at home — creates 1.56, concedes 2.61 · 61 matches

Flora Tallinn away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Broki attack 1.56 + Flora Tallinn defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.91

Flora Tallinn attack 1.33 + Broki defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Broki scores more
38%
level
21%
Flora Tallinn scores more
41%

Flora Tallinn at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Flora Tallinn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: Broki 0–1 Flora Tallinn

Flora Tallinn beat Broki 1-0 in Eerste Divisie on April 20, 2023.

The match was played at Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion in Paramaribo.