Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Brodd vs Sandnes Ulf II — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

Brodd
Brodd
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Sandnes Ulf II
Sandnes Ulf II
8/26/20223. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Girone 3 - 18Midjord kunstgras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Brodd45%
×Draw22%
Sandnes Ulf II33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brodd
1.93
Sandnes Ulf II
1.61

Brodd creates 20% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 26 away

creates per match

Brodd
1.36
Sandnes Ulf II
1.81

allows per match

Brodd
1.42
Sandnes Ulf II
2.50

finishing

Brodd+0.00on par
Sandnes Ulf II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brodd ↓

Sandnes Ulf II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Brodd or draw
67%
Brodd or Sandnes Ulf II
78%
Draw or Sandnes Ulf II
55%

Winning margin

Brodd wins by 2+
25%
Sandnes Ulf II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Brodd 1+ goals
85%
Brodd 2+ goals
57%
Brodd 3+ goals
30%
Sandnes Ulf II 1+ goals
80%
Sandnes Ulf II 2+ goals
48%
Sandnes Ulf II 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Brodd (draw refunded)
58%
Sandnes Ulf II (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brodd at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.42 · 33 matches

Sandnes Ulf II away — creates 1.81, concedes 2.50 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brodd attack 1.36 + Sandnes Ulf II defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.93

Sandnes Ulf II attack 1.81 + Brodd defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Brodd scores more
45%
level
22%
Sandnes Ulf II scores more
33%

Brodd at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Brodd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brodd vs Sandnes Ulf II

Sandnes Ulf II beat Brodd 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on August 26, 2022.

The match was played at Midjord kunstgras in Stavanger.