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Brodd vs Flekkerøy — 3. Division - Girone 4 2026

Brodd
Brodd
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Flekkerøy
Flekkerøy
I. Hebnes 74'
L. K. Emanuelsen 60'
A. Endresen 35'
4/18/20263. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Brodd51%
×Draw20%
Flekkerøy29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brodd
2.29
Flekkerøy
1.72

Brodd creates 33% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

Brodd
2.43
Flekkerøy
1.57

allows per match

Brodd
1.86
Flekkerøy
2.14

finishing

Brodd+0.00on par
Flekkerøy+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 76Under: 2476%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 74No: 2674%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brodd ↓

Flekkerøy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Brodd or draw
71%
Brodd or Flekkerøy
80%
Draw or Flekkerøy
49%

Winning margin

Brodd wins by 2+
30%
Flekkerøy wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Brodd 1+ goals
90%
Brodd 2+ goals
66%
Brodd 3+ goals
40%
Flekkerøy 1+ goals
82%
Flekkerøy 2+ goals
51%
Flekkerøy 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Brodd (draw refunded)
63%
Flekkerøy (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brodd at home — creates 2.43, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

Flekkerøy away — creates 1.57, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brodd attack 2.43 + Flekkerøy defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.29

Flekkerøy attack 1.57 + Brodd defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Brodd scores more
51%
level
20%
Flekkerøy scores more
29%

Brodd at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Brodd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'
A. Endresen
60'
L. K. Emanuelsen
74'
I. Hebnes

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 4: Brodd 2–1 Flekkerøy

Brodd beat Flekkerøy 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on April 18, 2026.

Goals: A. Endresen (35'), L. K. Emanuelsen (60'), I. Hebnes (74').