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Brodd vs Express — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

Brodd
Brodd
FT
2 – 1
Express
Express
9/11/20213. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Girone 3 - 6Midjord kunstgras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Brodd40%
×Draw22%
Express38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brodd
1.85
Express
1.79

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 6 away

creates per match

Brodd
1.36
Express
2.17

allows per match

Brodd
1.42
Express
2.33

finishing

Brodd+0.00on par
Express+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brodd ↓

Express →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Brodd or draw
62%
Brodd or Express
78%
Draw or Express
60%

Winning margin

Brodd wins by 2+
21%
Express wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Brodd 1+ goals
84%
Brodd 2+ goals
55%
Brodd 3+ goals
28%
Express 1+ goals
83%
Express 2+ goals
53%
Express 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Brodd (draw refunded)
52%
Express (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brodd at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.42 · 33 matches

Express away — creates 2.17, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brodd attack 1.36 + Express defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.85

Express attack 2.17 + Brodd defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Brodd scores more
40%
level
22%
Express scores more
38%

Brodd at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Brodd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 3: Brodd 2–1 Express

Brodd beat Express 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on September 11, 2021.

The match was played at Midjord kunstgras in Stavanger.