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Brodd vs Bremnes — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

Brodd
Brodd
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Bremnes
Bremnes
8/19/20233. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 16Midjord kunstgras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Brodd58%
×Draw20%
Bremnes22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brodd
2.24
Bremnes
1.30

Brodd creates 72% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 26 away

creates per match

Brodd
1.36
Bremnes
1.19

allows per match

Brodd
1.42
Bremnes
3.12

finishing

Brodd+0.00on par
Bremnes+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brodd ↓

Bremnes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Brodd or draw
78%
Brodd or Bremnes
80%
Draw or Bremnes
42%

Winning margin

Brodd wins by 2+
36%
Bremnes wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Brodd 1+ goals
89%
Brodd 2+ goals
65%
Brodd 3+ goals
38%
Bremnes 1+ goals
73%
Bremnes 2+ goals
37%
Bremnes 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Brodd (draw refunded)
73%
Bremnes (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brodd at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.42 · 33 matches

Bremnes away — creates 1.19, concedes 3.12 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brodd attack 1.36 + Bremnes defence 3.12 → ÷2 → 2.24

Bremnes attack 1.19 + Brodd defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Brodd scores more
58%
level
20%
Bremnes scores more
22%

Brodd at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Brodd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 3: Brodd 3–2 Bremnes

Brodd beat Bremnes 3-2 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on August 19, 2023.

The match was played at Midjord kunstgras in Stavanger.