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Brodarac vs Zemun — Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019

Brodarac
Brodarac
FT
2 – 0
Zemun
Zemun
9/9/2022Srpska Liga - BelgradeSrpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 5FK Brodarac Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Brodarac38%
×Draw26%
Zemun37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brodarac
1.36
Zemun
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 99 home / 45 away

creates per match

Brodarac
1.75
Zemun
1.67

allows per match

Brodarac
1.01
Zemun
0.98

finishing

Brodarac+0.00on par
Zemun+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brodarac ↓

Zemun →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Brodarac or draw
63%
Brodarac or Zemun
74%
Draw or Zemun
62%

Winning margin

Brodarac wins by 2+
17%
Zemun wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Brodarac 1+ goals
74%
Brodarac 2+ goals
39%
Brodarac 3+ goals
16%
Zemun 1+ goals
74%
Zemun 2+ goals
39%
Zemun 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Brodarac (draw refunded)
51%
Zemun (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brodarac at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.01 · 99 matches

Zemun away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.98 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brodarac attack 1.75 + Zemun defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.36

Zemun attack 1.67 + Brodarac defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Brodarac scores more
38%
level
26%
Zemun scores more
37%

Brodarac at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Brodarac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brodarac vs Zemun

Brodarac beat Zemun 2-0 in Srpska Liga - Belgrade on September 9, 2022.

The match was played at FK Brodarac Stadion in Novi Beograd.