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Brodarac vs Teleoptik — Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019

Brodarac
Brodarac
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Teleoptik
Teleoptik
5/30/2026Srpska Liga - BelgradeSrpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 26

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Brodarac43%
×Draw26%
Teleoptik31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brodarac
1.46
Teleoptik
1.20

Brodarac creates 22% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 98 away

creates per match

Brodarac
1.75
Teleoptik
1.39

allows per match

Brodarac
1.01
Teleoptik
1.16

finishing

Brodarac+0.00on par
Teleoptik+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brodarac ↓

Teleoptik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Brodarac or draw
69%
Brodarac or Teleoptik
74%
Draw or Teleoptik
57%

Winning margin

Brodarac wins by 2+
21%
Teleoptik wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Brodarac 1+ goals
77%
Brodarac 2+ goals
43%
Brodarac 3+ goals
18%
Teleoptik 1+ goals
70%
Teleoptik 2+ goals
34%
Teleoptik 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Brodarac (draw refunded)
58%
Teleoptik (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brodarac at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.01 · 99 matches

Teleoptik away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.16 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brodarac attack 1.75 + Teleoptik defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.46

Teleoptik attack 1.39 + Brodarac defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Brodarac scores more
43%
level
26%
Teleoptik scores more
31%

Brodarac at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Brodarac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Belgrade: Brodarac 2–3 Teleoptik

Teleoptik beat Brodarac 3-2 in Srpska Liga - Belgrade on May 30, 2026.