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Brodarac vs Sindjelic Beograd — Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019

Brodarac
Brodarac
FT
2 – 0
Sindjelic Beograd
Sindjelic Beograd
10/23/2022Srpska Liga - BelgradeSrpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 11FK Brodarac Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Brodarac52%
×Draw25%
Sindjelic Beograd23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brodarac
1.56
Sindjelic Beograd
0.94

Brodarac creates 66% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 49 away

creates per match

Brodarac
1.75
Sindjelic Beograd
0.86

allows per match

Brodarac
1.01
Sindjelic Beograd
1.37

finishing

Brodarac+0.00on par
Sindjelic Beograd+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brodarac ↓

Sindjelic Beograd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Brodarac or draw
77%
Brodarac or Sindjelic Beograd
75%
Draw or Sindjelic Beograd
48%

Winning margin

Brodarac wins by 2+
27%
Sindjelic Beograd wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Brodarac 1+ goals
79%
Brodarac 2+ goals
46%
Brodarac 3+ goals
21%
Sindjelic Beograd 1+ goals
61%
Sindjelic Beograd 2+ goals
24%
Sindjelic Beograd 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Brodarac (draw refunded)
69%
Sindjelic Beograd (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brodarac at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.01 · 99 matches

Sindjelic Beograd away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.37 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brodarac attack 1.75 + Sindjelic Beograd defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.56

Sindjelic Beograd attack 0.86 + Brodarac defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Brodarac scores more
52%
level
25%
Sindjelic Beograd scores more
23%

Brodarac at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Brodarac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brodarac vs Sindjelic Beograd

Brodarac beat Sindjelic Beograd 2-0 in Srpska Liga - Belgrade on October 23, 2022.

The match was played at FK Brodarac Stadion in Novi Beograd.