Brodarac 0–0 Jedinstvo Su: Result & Stats

Brodarac

FT

0 – 0

Jedinstvo Su

3/23/2024

Srpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 19FK Brodarac Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Brodarac51%

×Draw25%

Jedinstvo Su24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrodaracExpected goals in this matchJedinstvo Su

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.00

Brodarac

1.59

Jedinstvo Su

1.00

Brodarac creates 59% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 100 away

1.75

creates per match

0.99

1.01

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Brodarac

1.75

Jedinstvo Su

0.99

allows per match

Brodarac

1.01

Jedinstvo Su

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brodarac+0.00on par

Jedinstvo Su+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brodarac ↓

Jedinstvo Su →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Brodarac or draw

76%

Brodarac or Jedinstvo Su

75%

Draw or Jedinstvo Su

49%

Winning margin

Brodarac wins by 2+

27%

Jedinstvo Su wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Brodarac 1+ goals

80%

Brodarac 2+ goals

47%

Brodarac 3+ goals

21%

Jedinstvo Su 1+ goals

63%

Jedinstvo Su 2+ goals

26%

Jedinstvo Su 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Brodarac (draw refunded)

68%

Jedinstvo Su (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brodarac at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.01 · 99 matches

Jedinstvo Su away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.43 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brodarac attack 1.75 + Jedinstvo Su defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.59

Jedinstvo Su attack 0.99 + Brodarac defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Brodarac scores more

51%

level

25%

Jedinstvo Su scores more

24%

Brodarac at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Brodarac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff