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Broadmeadow Magic vs Weston Bears — Northern NSW NPL 2026

Broadmeadow Magic
Broadmeadow Magic
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Weston Bears
Weston Bears
4/11/2025Northern NSW NPLNorthern NSW NPL · Round 8Wanderers Oval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Broadmeadow Magic51%
×Draw21%
Weston Bears28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Broadmeadow Magic
2.06
Weston Bears
1.47

Broadmeadow Magic creates 40% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 80 away

creates per match

Broadmeadow Magic
2.72
Weston Bears
1.89

allows per match

Broadmeadow Magic
1.05
Weston Bears
1.39

finishing

Broadmeadow Magic+0.00on par
Weston Bears+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Broadmeadow Magic ↓

Weston Bears →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Broadmeadow Magic or draw
72%
Broadmeadow Magic or Weston Bears
79%
Draw or Weston Bears
49%

Winning margin

Broadmeadow Magic wins by 2+
30%
Weston Bears wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Broadmeadow Magic 1+ goals
87%
Broadmeadow Magic 2+ goals
61%
Broadmeadow Magic 3+ goals
34%
Weston Bears 1+ goals
77%
Weston Bears 2+ goals
43%
Weston Bears 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Broadmeadow Magic (draw refunded)
65%
Weston Bears (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Broadmeadow Magic at home — creates 2.72, concedes 1.05 · 86 matches

Weston Bears away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.39 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Broadmeadow Magic attack 2.72 + Weston Bears defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 2.06

Weston Bears attack 1.89 + Broadmeadow Magic defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Broadmeadow Magic scores more
51%
level
21%
Weston Bears scores more
28%

Broadmeadow Magic at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Broadmeadow Magic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Northern NSW NPL: Broadmeadow Magic 2–1 Weston Bears

Broadmeadow Magic beat Weston Bears 2-1 in Northern NSW NPL on April 11, 2025.

The match was played at Wanderers Oval in Newcastle.