Atalanta 2–0 Frosinone: Result & Stats | Serie A

Atalanta

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Frosinone

A. Gómez 69'

G. Stendardo 21'

8/30/2015

Serie A · Round 2Stadio Atleti Azzurri d'Italia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Atalanta54%

×Draw22%

Frosinone23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AtalantaExpected goals in this matchFrosinone

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.18

Atalanta

1.92

Frosinone

1.18

Atalanta creates 63% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 5 away

1.84

creates per match

1.48

0.88

allows per match

1.99

creates per match

Atalanta

1.84

Frosinone

1.48

allows per match

Atalanta

0.88

Frosinone

1.99

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

-0.68scores less than expected

finishing

Atalanta+0.11scores more

Frosinone-0.68scores less

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atalanta ↓

Frosinone →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Atalanta or draw

77%

Atalanta or Frosinone

78%

Draw or Frosinone

46%

Winning margin

Atalanta wins by 2+

31%

Frosinone wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Atalanta 1+ goals

85%

Atalanta 2+ goals

57%

Atalanta 3+ goals

30%

Frosinone 1+ goals

69%

Frosinone 2+ goals

33%

Frosinone 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Atalanta (draw refunded)

70%

Frosinone (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atalanta at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.88 · 39 matches

Frosinone away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.99 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atalanta attack 1.84 + Frosinone defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 1.92

Frosinone attack 1.48 + Atalanta defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Atalanta scores more

54%

level

22%

Frosinone scores more

23%

Atalanta at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Atalanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

A. Gómez

Atalanta · F

9.0

Match Events

7'

21'

35'

35'

46'

56'

69'

G. Migliaccio← A. Grassi

69'

A. Gómez↳ M. Moralez

70'

M. Carlini← D. Soddimo

75'

A. Tonev← L. Paganini

77'

L. Giorgi← J. Kurtič

89'

M. Estigarribia← A. Gómez

90'

Federico Dionisi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtalantaFrosinone

Overview

60%Possession40%

25Total Shots14

9Corners2

0Fouls0

Shots

25Total Shots14

11On Target4

8Off Target7

6Blocked3

11Inside Box5

14Outside Box9

Passing

60%Possession40%

475Total Passes316

382Accurate Passes234

80%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

4Saves9

Discipline

0Fouls0

1Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

2Offsides4