Briviesca 2–1 Villaralbo: Result & Stats

Briviesca

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Villaralbo

11/3/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 10Campo Municipal de Futbol Briviesca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Briviesca39%

×Draw30%

Villaralbo31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BriviescaExpected goals in this matchVillaralbo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

0.95

Briviesca

1.11

Villaralbo

0.95

Briviesca creates 17% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 52 away

1.06

creates per match

0.83

1.06

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Briviesca

1.06

Villaralbo

0.83

allows per match

Briviesca

1.06

Villaralbo

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Briviesca+0.00on par

Villaralbo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Briviesca ↓

Villaralbo →

0–013%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–08%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Briviesca or draw

69%

Briviesca or Villaralbo

70%

Draw or Villaralbo

61%

Winning margin

Briviesca wins by 2+

16%

Villaralbo wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Briviesca 1+ goals

67%

Briviesca 2+ goals

30%

Briviesca 3+ goals

10%

Villaralbo 1+ goals

61%

Villaralbo 2+ goals

25%

Villaralbo 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Briviesca (draw refunded)

56%

Villaralbo (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Briviesca at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

Villaralbo away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.17 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Briviesca attack 1.06 + Villaralbo defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.11

Villaralbo attack 0.83 + Briviesca defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Briviesca scores more

39%

level

30%

Villaralbo scores more

31%

Briviesca at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Briviesca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff