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Briviesca vs Palencia CF — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Briviesca
Briviesca
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Palencia CF
Palencia CF
4/12/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 32Campo Municipal de Futbol Briviesca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Briviesca38%
×Draw30%
Palencia CF32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Briviesca
1.13
Palencia CF
1.00

Briviesca creates 13% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 84 away

creates per match

Briviesca
1.06
Palencia CF
0.93

allows per match

Briviesca
1.06
Palencia CF
1.20

finishing

Briviesca+0.00on par
Palencia CF+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Briviesca ↓

Palencia CF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Briviesca or draw
68%
Briviesca or Palencia CF
70%
Draw or Palencia CF
62%

Winning margin

Briviesca wins by 2+
16%
Palencia CF wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Briviesca 1+ goals
68%
Briviesca 2+ goals
31%
Briviesca 3+ goals
11%
Palencia CF 1+ goals
63%
Palencia CF 2+ goals
26%
Palencia CF 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Briviesca (draw refunded)
55%
Palencia CF (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Briviesca at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

Palencia CF away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.20 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Briviesca attack 1.06 + Palencia CF defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.13

Palencia CF attack 0.93 + Briviesca defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Briviesca scores more
38%
level
30%
Palencia CF scores more
32%

Briviesca at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Briviesca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Briviesca 2–1 Palencia CF

Briviesca beat Palencia CF 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on April 12, 2025.

The match was played at Campo Municipal de Futbol Briviesca in Briviesca.