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Briviesca vs La Virgen del Camino — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Briviesca
Briviesca
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
La Virgen del Camino
La Virgen del Camino
2/22/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 25Campo Municipal de Futbol Briviesca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Briviesca41%
×Draw28%
La Virgen del Camino31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Briviesca
1.25
La Virgen del Camino
1.06

Briviesca creates 18% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 111 away

creates per match

Briviesca
1.06
La Virgen del Camino
1.05

allows per match

Briviesca
1.06
La Virgen del Camino
1.43

finishing

Briviesca+0.00on par
La Virgen del Camino+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Briviesca ↓

La Virgen del Camino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Briviesca or draw
69%
Briviesca or La Virgen del Camino
72%
Draw or La Virgen del Camino
59%

Winning margin

Briviesca wins by 2+
18%
La Virgen del Camino wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Briviesca 1+ goals
71%
Briviesca 2+ goals
36%
Briviesca 3+ goals
13%
La Virgen del Camino 1+ goals
65%
La Virgen del Camino 2+ goals
29%
La Virgen del Camino 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Briviesca (draw refunded)
56%
La Virgen del Camino (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Briviesca at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

La Virgen del Camino away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.43 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Briviesca attack 1.06 + La Virgen del Camino defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.25

La Virgen del Camino attack 1.05 + Briviesca defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Briviesca scores more
41%
level
28%
La Virgen del Camino scores more
31%

Briviesca at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Briviesca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Briviesca 2–0 La Virgen del Camino

Briviesca beat La Virgen del Camino 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on February 22, 2025.

The match was played at Campo Municipal de Futbol Briviesca in Briviesca.