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Briviesca vs Becerril Campos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Briviesca
Briviesca
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Becerril Campos
Becerril Campos
11/17/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 12Campo Municipal de Futbol Briviesca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Briviesca43%
×Draw28%
Becerril Campos29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Briviesca
1.32
Becerril Campos
1.04

Briviesca creates 27% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 97 away

creates per match

Briviesca
1.06
Becerril Campos
1.02

allows per match

Briviesca
1.06
Becerril Campos
1.58

finishing

Briviesca+0.00on par
Becerril Campos+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Briviesca ↓

Becerril Campos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Briviesca or draw
71%
Briviesca or Becerril Campos
72%
Draw or Becerril Campos
57%

Winning margin

Briviesca wins by 2+
20%
Becerril Campos wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Briviesca 1+ goals
73%
Briviesca 2+ goals
38%
Briviesca 3+ goals
15%
Becerril Campos 1+ goals
65%
Becerril Campos 2+ goals
28%
Becerril Campos 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Briviesca (draw refunded)
59%
Becerril Campos (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Briviesca at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

Becerril Campos away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.58 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Briviesca attack 1.06 + Becerril Campos defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.32

Becerril Campos attack 1.02 + Briviesca defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Briviesca scores more
43%
level
28%
Becerril Campos scores more
29%

Briviesca at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Briviesca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Briviesca 1–2 Becerril Campos

Becerril Campos beat Briviesca 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on November 17, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Municipal de Futbol Briviesca in Briviesca.