Briviesca 0–1 Atlético Tordesillas: Result & Stats

Briviesca

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Atlético Tordesillas

5/1/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 36Campo Municipal de Futbol Briviesca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Briviesca34%

×Draw30%

Atlético Tordesillas36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BriviescaExpected goals in this matchAtlético Tordesillas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.09

Briviesca

1.06

Atlético Tordesillas

1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 110 away

1.06

creates per match

1.13

1.06

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Briviesca

1.06

Atlético Tordesillas

1.13

allows per match

Briviesca

1.06

Atlético Tordesillas

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Briviesca+0.00on par

Atlético Tordesillas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Briviesca ↓

Atlético Tordesillas →

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Briviesca or draw

64%

Briviesca or Atlético Tordesillas

70%

Draw or Atlético Tordesillas

66%

Winning margin

Briviesca wins by 2+

13%

Atlético Tordesillas wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Briviesca 1+ goals

65%

Briviesca 2+ goals

29%

Briviesca 3+ goals

Atlético Tordesillas 1+ goals

66%

Atlético Tordesillas 2+ goals

30%

Atlético Tordesillas 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Briviesca (draw refunded)

49%

Atlético Tordesillas (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Briviesca at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

Atlético Tordesillas away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.07 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Briviesca attack 1.06 + Atlético Tordesillas defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.06

Atlético Tordesillas attack 1.13 + Briviesca defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 36%?"

Briviesca scores more

34%

level

30%

Atlético Tordesillas scores more

36%

Atlético Tordesillas at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Atlético Tordesillas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff