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Briviesca vs Atlético Mansillés — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Briviesca
Briviesca
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Atlético Mansillés
Atlético Mansillés
9/7/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 1Campo Municipal de Futbol Briviesca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Briviesca39%
×Draw32%
Atlético Mansillés29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Briviesca
1.03
Atlético Mansillés
0.84

Briviesca creates 23% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 35 away

creates per match

Briviesca
1.06
Atlético Mansillés
0.63

allows per match

Briviesca
1.06
Atlético Mansillés
1.00

finishing

Briviesca+0.00on par
Atlético Mansillés+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Briviesca ↓

Atlético Mansillés →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Briviesca or draw
71%
Briviesca or Atlético Mansillés
68%
Draw or Atlético Mansillés
61%

Winning margin

Briviesca wins by 2+
15%
Atlético Mansillés wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Briviesca 1+ goals
64%
Briviesca 2+ goals
28%
Briviesca 3+ goals
9%
Atlético Mansillés 1+ goals
57%
Atlético Mansillés 2+ goals
21%
Atlético Mansillés 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Briviesca (draw refunded)
57%
Atlético Mansillés (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Briviesca at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

Atlético Mansillés away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.00 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Briviesca attack 1.06 + Atlético Mansillés defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.03

Atlético Mansillés attack 0.63 + Briviesca defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Briviesca scores more
39%
level
32%
Atlético Mansillés scores more
29%

Briviesca at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Briviesca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Briviesca vs Atlético Mansillés

Briviesca beat Atlético Mansillés 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on September 7, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Municipal de Futbol Briviesca in Briviesca.