Brittons Hill 3–4 Pride of Gall Hill

Brittons Hill

FT

3 – 4

Pride of Gall Hill

7/24/2013

Premier League · Round 1Wildey Astro Turf (Bridgetown)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Brittons Hill63%

×Draw20%

Pride of Gall Hill17%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Brittons HillExpected goals in this matchPride of Gall Hill

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

1.00

Brittons Hill

2.15

Pride of Gall Hill

1.00

Brittons Hill creates 115% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 21 away

2.53

creates per match

0.90

1.10

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Brittons Hill

2.53

Pride of Gall Hill

0.90

allows per match

Brittons Hill

1.10

Pride of Gall Hill

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brittons Hill+0.00on par

Pride of Gall Hill+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brittons Hill ↓

Pride of Gall Hill →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Brittons Hill or draw

83%

Brittons Hill or Pride of Gall Hill

80%

Draw or Pride of Gall Hill

37%

Winning margin

Brittons Hill wins by 2+

40%

Pride of Gall Hill wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Brittons Hill 1+ goals

88%

Brittons Hill 2+ goals

63%

Brittons Hill 3+ goals

36%

Pride of Gall Hill 1+ goals

63%

Pride of Gall Hill 2+ goals

26%

Pride of Gall Hill 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Brittons Hill (draw refunded)

79%

Pride of Gall Hill (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brittons Hill at home — creates 2.53, concedes 1.10 · 30 matches

Pride of Gall Hill away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.76 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brittons Hill attack 2.53 + Pride of Gall Hill defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 2.15

Pride of Gall Hill attack 0.90 + Brittons Hill defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Brittons Hill scores more

63%

level

20%

Pride of Gall Hill scores more

17%

Brittons Hill at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Brittons Hill will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff