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Brittons Hill vs Notre Dame — Premier League 2019

Brittons Hill
Brittons Hill
FT
2 – 1
Notre Dame
Notre Dame
7/6/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 10Wildey Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Brittons Hill49%
×Draw21%
Notre Dame31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brittons Hill
2.15
Notre Dame
1.68

Brittons Hill creates 28% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 18 away

creates per match

Brittons Hill
2.13
Notre Dame
2.22

allows per match

Brittons Hill
1.13
Notre Dame
2.17

finishing

Brittons Hill+0.00on par
Notre Dame+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brittons Hill ↓

Notre Dame →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Brittons Hill or draw
69%
Brittons Hill or Notre Dame
79%
Draw or Notre Dame
51%

Winning margin

Brittons Hill wins by 2+
28%
Notre Dame wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Brittons Hill 1+ goals
88%
Brittons Hill 2+ goals
63%
Brittons Hill 3+ goals
36%
Notre Dame 1+ goals
81%
Notre Dame 2+ goals
50%
Notre Dame 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Brittons Hill (draw refunded)
61%
Notre Dame (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brittons Hill at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.13 · 48 matches

Notre Dame away — creates 2.22, concedes 2.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brittons Hill attack 2.13 + Notre Dame defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.15

Notre Dame attack 2.22 + Brittons Hill defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Brittons Hill scores more
49%
level
21%
Notre Dame scores more
31%

Brittons Hill at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Brittons Hill will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brittons Hill vs Notre Dame

Brittons Hill beat Notre Dame 2-1 in Premier League on July 6, 2023.

The match was played at Wildey Turf in Bridgetown.