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Brittons Hill vs Deacons — Premier League 2019

Brittons Hill
Brittons Hill
FT
6 – 0
Deacons
Deacons
7/9/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 10Wildey Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Brittons Hill61%
×Draw19%
Deacons20%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brittons Hill
2.38
Deacons
1.30

Brittons Hill creates 83% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 32 away

creates per match

Brittons Hill
2.13
Deacons
1.47

allows per match

Brittons Hill
1.13
Deacons
2.63

finishing

Brittons Hill+0.00on par
Deacons+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brittons Hill ↓

Deacons →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Brittons Hill or draw
80%
Brittons Hill or Deacons
81%
Draw or Deacons
39%

Winning margin

Brittons Hill wins by 2+
39%
Deacons wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Brittons Hill 1+ goals
91%
Brittons Hill 2+ goals
68%
Brittons Hill 3+ goals
42%
Deacons 1+ goals
73%
Deacons 2+ goals
37%
Deacons 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Brittons Hill (draw refunded)
75%
Deacons (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brittons Hill at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.13 · 48 matches

Deacons away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.63 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brittons Hill attack 2.13 + Deacons defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 2.38

Deacons attack 1.47 + Brittons Hill defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Brittons Hill scores more
61%
level
19%
Deacons scores more
20%

Brittons Hill at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Brittons Hill will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Brittons Hill 6–0 Deacons

Brittons Hill beat Deacons 6-0 in Premier League on July 9, 2023.

The match was played at Wildey Turf in Bridgetown.