Brittons Hill 4–0 Bagatelle: Result & Stats

Brittons Hill

FT

4 – 0

Bagatelle

5/30/2012

Premier League · Round 15Barbados National Stadium (Bridgetown)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Brittons Hill63%

×Draw20%

Bagatelle17%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Brittons HillExpected goals in this matchBagatelle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

1.06

Brittons Hill

2.21

Bagatelle

1.06

Brittons Hill creates 108% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 14 away

2.50

creates per match

1.00

1.11

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Brittons Hill

2.50

Bagatelle

1.00

allows per match

Brittons Hill

1.11

Bagatelle

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brittons Hill+0.00on par

Bagatelle+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brittons Hill ↓

Bagatelle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Brittons Hill or draw

83%

Brittons Hill or Bagatelle

80%

Draw or Bagatelle

37%

Winning margin

Brittons Hill wins by 2+

40%

Bagatelle wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Brittons Hill 1+ goals

89%

Brittons Hill 2+ goals

65%

Brittons Hill 3+ goals

38%

Bagatelle 1+ goals

65%

Bagatelle 2+ goals

29%

Bagatelle 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Brittons Hill (draw refunded)

79%

Bagatelle (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brittons Hill at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.11 · 28 matches

Bagatelle away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brittons Hill attack 2.50 + Bagatelle defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.21

Bagatelle attack 1.00 + Brittons Hill defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Brittons Hill scores more

63%

level

20%

Bagatelle scores more

17%

Brittons Hill at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Brittons Hill will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff