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Brito vs Moura — Taça de Portugal 2018

Brito
Brito
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Moura
Moura
10/20/2024Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 3rd RoundParque de Jogos do Brito SC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Brito23%
×Draw28%
Moura48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brito
0.83
Moura
1.33

Moura creates 60% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Brito
1.00
Moura
1.67

allows per match

Brito
1.00
Moura
0.67

finishing

Brito+0.00on par
Moura+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brito ↓

Moura →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–115%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Brito or draw
52%
Brito or Moura
72%
Draw or Moura
77%

Winning margin

Brito wins by 2+
7%
Moura wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Brito 1+ goals
56%
Brito 2+ goals
20%
Brito 3+ goals
5%
Moura 1+ goals
74%
Moura 2+ goals
38%
Moura 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Brito (draw refunded)
33%
Moura (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brito at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Moura away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brito attack 1.00 + Moura defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Moura attack 1.67 + Brito defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Brito scores more
23%
level
28%
Moura scores more
48%

Moura at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Moura will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brito vs Moura

Brito beat Moura 1-0 in Taça de Portugal on October 20, 2024.

The match was played at Parque de Jogos do Brito SC in Brito.