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Brito vs Feirense — Taça de Portugal 2018

Brito
Brito
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Feirense
Feirense
9/24/2023Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 2nd RoundParque de Jogos do Brito SC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Brito29%
×Draw28%
Feirense43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brito
1.04
Feirense
1.32

Feirense creates 27% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 11 away

creates per match

Brito
1.00
Feirense
1.64

allows per match

Brito
1.00
Feirense
1.09

finishing

Brito+0.00on par
Feirense+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brito ↓

Feirense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Brito or draw
57%
Brito or Feirense
72%
Draw or Feirense
71%

Winning margin

Brito wins by 2+
11%
Feirense wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Brito 1+ goals
65%
Brito 2+ goals
28%
Brito 3+ goals
9%
Feirense 1+ goals
73%
Feirense 2+ goals
38%
Feirense 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Brito (draw refunded)
41%
Feirense (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brito at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Feirense away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brito attack 1.00 + Feirense defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.04

Feirense attack 1.64 + Brito defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Brito scores more
29%
level
28%
Feirense scores more
43%

Feirense at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Feirense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Brito 0–2 Feirense

Feirense beat Brito 2-0 in Taça de Portugal on September 24, 2023.

The match was played at Parque de Jogos do Brito SC in Brito.