Britannia 6–2 NEC Res.: Result & Stats

Britannia

FT

6 – 2

HT: 4 – 1

NEC Res.

4/2/2022

Division di Honor · Round 15Compleho Deportivo Guillermo Prospero Trinidad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Britannia55%

×Draw19%

NEC Res.26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BritanniaExpected goals in this matchNEC Res.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.68

1.85

Britannia

2.68

NEC Res.

1.85

Britannia creates 45% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 13 away

2.05

creates per match

2.54

1.16

allows per match

3.31

creates per match

Britannia

2.05

NEC Res.

2.54

allows per match

Britannia

1.16

NEC Res.

3.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Britannia+0.00on par

NEC Res.+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Britannia ↓

NEC Res. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–15%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

65%35%4.5

46%54%

Double chance

Britannia or draw

74%

Britannia or NEC Res.

81%

Draw or NEC Res.

45%

Winning margin

Britannia wins by 2+

35%

NEC Res. wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Britannia 1+ goals

93%

Britannia 2+ goals

74%

Britannia 3+ goals

49%

NEC Res. 1+ goals

84%

NEC Res. 2+ goals

55%

NEC Res. 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Britannia (draw refunded)

68%

NEC Res. (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

73%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Britannia at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.16 · 63 matches

NEC Res. away — creates 2.54, concedes 3.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Britannia attack 2.05 + NEC Res. defence 3.31 → ÷2 → 2.68

NEC Res. attack 2.54 + Britannia defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Britannia scores more

55%

level

19%

NEC Res. scores more

26%

Britannia at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Britannia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff