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Britannia vs Nacional — Division di Honor 2019

Britannia
Britannia
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Nacional
Nacional
2/1/2025Division di HonorDivision di Honor · Play-offs Kaya 6 - 1Compleho Deportivo Frans Figaroa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Britannia41%
×Draw22%
Nacional37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Britannia
1.80
Nacional
1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 63 home / 61 away

creates per match

Britannia
2.05
Nacional
2.21

allows per match

Britannia
1.16
Nacional
1.56

finishing

Britannia+0.00on par
Nacional+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Britannia ↓

Nacional →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Britannia or draw
63%
Britannia or Nacional
78%
Draw or Nacional
59%

Winning margin

Britannia wins by 2+
22%
Nacional wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Britannia 1+ goals
83%
Britannia 2+ goals
54%
Britannia 3+ goals
27%
Nacional 1+ goals
82%
Nacional 2+ goals
50%
Nacional 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Britannia (draw refunded)
53%
Nacional (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Britannia at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.16 · 63 matches

Nacional away — creates 2.21, concedes 1.56 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Britannia attack 2.05 + Nacional defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.80

Nacional attack 2.21 + Britannia defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Britannia scores more
41%
level
22%
Nacional scores more
37%

Britannia at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Britannia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Britannia vs Nacional

Britannia beat Nacional 4-1 in Division di Honor on February 1, 2025.

The match was played at Compleho Deportivo Frans Figaroa in Noord.