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Britannia vs Caravel — Division di Honor 2019

Britannia
Britannia
FT
6 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Caravel
Caravel
10/24/2022Division di HonorDivision di Honor · Round 6Compleho Deportivo Guillermo Prospero Trinidad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Britannia59%
×Draw20%
Caravel22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Britannia
2.34
Caravel
1.36

Britannia creates 72% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 28 away

creates per match

Britannia
2.05
Caravel
1.57

allows per match

Britannia
1.16
Caravel
2.64

finishing

Britannia+0.00on par
Caravel+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Britannia ↓

Caravel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Britannia or draw
78%
Britannia or Caravel
80%
Draw or Caravel
41%

Winning margin

Britannia wins by 2+
37%
Caravel wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Britannia 1+ goals
90%
Britannia 2+ goals
67%
Britannia 3+ goals
41%
Caravel 1+ goals
74%
Caravel 2+ goals
39%
Caravel 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Britannia (draw refunded)
73%
Caravel (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Britannia at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.16 · 63 matches

Caravel away — creates 1.57, concedes 2.64 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Britannia attack 2.05 + Caravel defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 2.34

Caravel attack 1.57 + Britannia defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Britannia scores more
59%
level
20%
Caravel scores more
22%

Britannia at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Britannia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Britannia vs Caravel

Britannia beat Caravel 6-0 in Division di Honor on October 24, 2022.

The match was played at Compleho Deportivo Guillermo Prospero Trinidad in Oranjestad.