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Britannia vs Caiquetio — Division di Honor 2019

Britannia
Britannia
FT
6 – 1
Caiquetio
Caiquetio
12/1/2018Division di HonorDivision di Honor · Round 7Compleho Deportivo Guillermo Prospero Trinidad (Oranjestad)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Britannia56%
×Draw22%
Caiquetio23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Britannia
1.99
Caiquetio
1.19

Britannia creates 67% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 13 away

creates per match

Britannia
2.21
Caiquetio
1.23

allows per match

Britannia
1.16
Caiquetio
1.77

finishing

Britannia+0.00on par
Caiquetio+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Britannia ↓

Caiquetio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Britannia or draw
77%
Britannia or Caiquetio
78%
Draw or Caiquetio
44%

Winning margin

Britannia wins by 2+
33%
Caiquetio wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Britannia 1+ goals
86%
Britannia 2+ goals
59%
Britannia 3+ goals
32%
Caiquetio 1+ goals
70%
Caiquetio 2+ goals
33%
Caiquetio 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Britannia (draw refunded)
71%
Caiquetio (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Britannia at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.16 · 67 matches

Caiquetio away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Britannia attack 2.21 + Caiquetio defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.99

Caiquetio attack 1.23 + Britannia defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Britannia scores more
56%
level
22%
Caiquetio scores more
23%

Britannia at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Britannia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Britannia vs Caiquetio

Britannia beat Caiquetio 6-1 in Division di Honor on December 1, 2018.

The match was played at Compleho Deportivo Guillermo Prospero Trinidad (Oranjestad).