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Bristol Rovers W vs Sherborne Town W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Bristol Rovers W
Bristol Rovers W
FT
4 – 3
Sherborne Town W
Sherborne Town W
11/3/2024FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 1st RoundMemorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Bristol Rovers W45%
×Draw18%
Sherborne Town W37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bristol Rovers W
2.79
Sherborne Town W
2.54

Bristol Rovers W creates 10% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Bristol Rovers W
2.25
Sherborne Town W
2.83

allows per match

Bristol Rovers W
2.25
Sherborne Town W
3.33

finishing

Bristol Rovers W+0.00on par
Sherborne Town W+0.00on par

Total goals

90%Over
  • Over90
  • Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

86%Yes
  • Yes86
  • No14

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol Rovers W ↓

Sherborne Town W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–25%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
97%3%2.5
90%10%3.5
77%23%4.5
60%40%

Double chance

Bristol Rovers W or draw
63%
Bristol Rovers W or Sherborne Town W
82%
Draw or Sherborne Town W
55%

Winning margin

Bristol Rovers W wins by 2+
27%
Sherborne Town W wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Bristol Rovers W 1+ goals
94%
Bristol Rovers W 2+ goals
76%
Bristol Rovers W 3+ goals
52%
Sherborne Town W 1+ goals
92%
Sherborne Town W 2+ goals
72%
Sherborne Town W 3+ goals
46%

Draw no bet

Bristol Rovers W (draw refunded)
55%
Sherborne Town W (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
83%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol Rovers W at home — creates 2.25, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Sherborne Town W away — creates 2.83, concedes 3.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol Rovers W attack 2.25 + Sherborne Town W defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.79

Sherborne Town W attack 2.83 + Bristol Rovers W defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Bristol Rovers W scores more
45%
level
18%
Sherborne Town W scores more
37%

Bristol Rovers W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Bristol Rovers W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bristol Rovers W vs Sherborne Town W

Bristol Rovers W beat Sherborne Town W 4-3 in FA Women's Cup on November 3, 2024.

The match was played at Memorial Stadium in Bristol, Gloucestershire.