Bristol Rovers W 1–2 Keynsham Town W

Bristol Rovers W

1 – 2

Keynsham Town W

12/3/2023

FA Women's Cup · 2nd RoundLockleaze Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Bristol Rovers W39%

×Draw20%

Keynsham Town W41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bristol Rovers WExpected goals in this matchKeynsham Town W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.20

2.27

Bristol Rovers W

2.20

Keynsham Town W

2.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

2.25

creates per match

2.29

2.25

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

Bristol Rovers W

2.25

Keynsham Town W

2.29

allows per match

Bristol Rovers W

2.25

Keynsham Town W

2.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bristol Rovers W+0.00on par

Keynsham Town W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes80
No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol Rovers W ↓

Keynsham Town W →

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1–03%

1–16%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

65%35%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

Bristol Rovers W or draw

59%

Bristol Rovers W or Keynsham Town W

80%

Draw or Keynsham Town W

61%

Winning margin

Bristol Rovers W wins by 2+

22%

Keynsham Town W wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Bristol Rovers W 1+ goals

89%

Bristol Rovers W 2+ goals

64%

Bristol Rovers W 3+ goals

37%

Keynsham Town W 1+ goals

90%

Keynsham Town W 2+ goals

66%

Keynsham Town W 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Bristol Rovers W (draw refunded)

48%

Keynsham Town W (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

74%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Bristol Rovers W at home — creates 2.25, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Keynsham Town W away — creates 2.29, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Bristol Rovers W attack 2.25 + Keynsham Town W defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.20

Keynsham Town W attack 2.29 + Bristol Rovers W defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bristol Rovers W scores more

39%

level

20%

Keynsham Town W scores more

41%

Keynsham Town W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Keynsham Town W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff