Bristol Rovers 1–1 Wrexham: Result & Stats

Bristol Rovers

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Wrexham

P. Omochere 86'

E. Lee 18'

12/21/2024

League One · Round 21Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Bristol Rovers30%

×Draw29%

Wrexham41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bristol RoversExpected goals in this matchWrexham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

1.23

Bristol Rovers

1.01

Wrexham

1.23

Wrexham creates 22% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 23 away

1.20

creates per match

1.13

1.34

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Bristol Rovers

1.20

Wrexham

1.13

allows per match

Bristol Rovers

1.34

Wrexham

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bristol Rovers+0.00on par

Wrexham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol Rovers ↓

Wrexham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Bristol Rovers or draw

59%

Bristol Rovers or Wrexham

71%

Draw or Wrexham

70%

Winning margin

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+

11%

Wrexham wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals

64%

Bristol Rovers 2+ goals

27%

Bristol Rovers 3+ goals

8%

Wrexham 1+ goals

71%

Wrexham 2+ goals

35%

Wrexham 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)

42%

Wrexham (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol Rovers at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.34 · 133 matches

Wrexham away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.83 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol Rovers attack 1.20 + Wrexham defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.01

Wrexham attack 1.13 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bristol Rovers scores more

30%

level

29%

Wrexham scores more

41%

Wrexham at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Wrexham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

37

M. James

Wrexham · M

7.7

Match Events

18'

E. Lee↳ M. James

22'

L. Thomas← M. Forbes

35'

P. Mullin← E. Lee

45+4'

Luke Thomas

45+5'

Ollie Palmer

46'

J. Senior← S. Sinclair

46'

P. Omochere← T. Moore

48'

Eoghan O'Connell

57'

Jamie Lindsay

67'

S. Fletcher← O. Palmer

73'

I. Hutchinson← L. McCormick

80'

S. Forde← C. Mola

84'

G. Dobson← A. Cannon

86'

P. Omochere↳ L. Thomas

90+6'

James Wilson

90+6'

Steven Fletcher

90+6'

James McClean

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BristolWrexham

Overview

49%Possession51%

3Total Shots13

3Corners7

9Fouls14

Shots

3Total Shots13

1On Target2

0Off Target9

2Blocked2

1Inside Box7

2Outside Box6

Passing

49%Possession51%

297Total Passes311

186Accurate Passes207

63%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

9Fouls14

3Yellow Cards4

0Offsides3

League One: Bristol Rovers 1–1 Wrexham

Bristol Rovers and Wrexham drew 1-1 in League One on December 21, 2024.

Goals: E. Lee (18'), P. Omochere (86').

Wrexham controlled possession (51%) and registered 13 shots to 3.

The match was played at Memorial Stadium in Bristol, Gloucestershire.

Bristol Rovers vs Wrexham — League One 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League One: Bristol Rovers 1–1 Wrexham