Bristol Rovers 2–1 Salford City: Result & Stats

Bristol Rovers

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Salford City

F. Cavegn 63'

E. Harrison 45'

M. Butcher 11'

9/27/2025

League Two · Round 10Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Bristol Rovers41%

×Draw25%

Salford City34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bristol RoversExpected goals in this matchSalford City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.34

Bristol Rovers

1.49

Salford City

1.34

Bristol Rovers creates 11% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 10 away

1.40

creates per match

1.55

1.13

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Bristol Rovers

1.40

Salford City

1.55

allows per match

Bristol Rovers

1.13

Salford City

1.58

+0.03on par

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Bristol Rovers+0.03on par

Salford City-0.05on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol Rovers ↓

Salford City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Bristol Rovers or draw

66%

Bristol Rovers or Salford City

75%

Draw or Salford City

59%

Winning margin

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+

20%

Salford City wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals

77%

Bristol Rovers 2+ goals

44%

Bristol Rovers 3+ goals

19%

Salford City 1+ goals

74%

Salford City 2+ goals

39%

Salford City 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)

54%

Salford City (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol Rovers at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.13 · 14 matches

Salford City away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.58 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol Rovers attack 1.40 + Salford City defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.49

Salford City attack 1.55 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bristol Rovers scores more

41%

level

25%

Salford City scores more

34%

Bristol Rovers at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bristol Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

A. Kilgour

Bristol Rovers · D

7.9

Match Events

11'

M. Butcher

40'

Kadeem Harris

43'

L. Thomas← J. Cotterill

45'

E. Harrison↳ A. Kilgour

46'

54'

57'

61'

63'

64'

64'

74'

81'

B. Bilongo← J. McEachran

84'

J. Austerfield← B. Cooper

90+7'

Luke Thomas

90+6'

Haji Mnoga

90+3'

O. Dewsbury← F. Cavegn

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BristolSalford

Overview

47%Possession53%

7Total Shots18

2Corners5

17Fouls14

Shots

7Total Shots18

2On Target6

3Off Target9

2Blocked3

6Inside Box12

1Outside Box6

Passing

47%Possession53%

260Total Passes289

139Accurate Passes173

53%Pass Accuracy60%

Goalkeeping

5Saves0

Discipline

17Fouls14

2Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

2Offsides1