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Bristol Rovers vs Rochdale — League Two 2018

Bristol Rovers
Bristol Rovers
Preview
15:00
Rochdale
Rochdale
1/9/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 24Memorial Stadium
Big match
47%
Bristol Rovers
model favours
47%26%27%

Bristol Rovers score first in only 27% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Bristol Rovers47%
×Draw26%
Rochdale27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bristol Rovers
1.49
Rochdale
1.06

Bristol Rovers creates 41% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 56 away

creates per match

Bristol Rovers
1.61
Rochdale
0.95

allows per match

Bristol Rovers
1.18
Rochdale
1.36

finishing

Bristol Rovers+0.00on par
Rochdale+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol Rovers ↓

Rochdale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Bristol Rovers or draw
73%
Bristol Rovers or Rochdale
74%
Draw or Rochdale
53%

Winning margin

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+
23%
Rochdale wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals
77%
Bristol Rovers 2+ goals
44%
Bristol Rovers 3+ goals
19%
Rochdale 1+ goals
65%
Rochdale 2+ goals
29%
Rochdale 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)
64%
Rochdale (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol Rovers at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.18 · 57 matches

Rochdale away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.36 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol Rovers attack 1.61 + Rochdale defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.49

Rochdale attack 0.95 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bristol Rovers scores more
47%
level
26%
Rochdale scores more
27%

Bristol Rovers at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bristol Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 82% of Bristol Rovers’s matches
  • 73% of Bristol Rovers’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • Their last 5 meetings averaged 3.6 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Bristol Rovers
Defensively solid
Rochdale
Balanced
52%Possession52%
66%Pass accuracy70%
12.5ShotsBiggest gap10.4
1.38xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Bristol RoversRochdale

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

2
Bristol Rovers
2
Draws
1
Rochdale
Avg goals: 3.6BTTS: 80%
4–34–21–21–10–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Rovers
DDLW
Rochdale
DLDDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bristol Rovers vs Rochdale — Match Preview

Bristol Rovers face Rochdale on January 9, 2027 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Bristol Rovers host Rochdale at Memorial Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.