Bristol Rovers 3–0 Plymouth: Result & Stats

Bristol Rovers

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Plymouth

Z. Westbrooke 85'

L. McCormick 26'

A. Kilgour 7'

12/12/2020

League One · Round 17Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 114+ matches

Bristol Rovers37%

×Draw26%

Plymouth37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bristol RoversExpected goals in this matchPlymouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.36

Bristol Rovers

1.35

Plymouth

1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 133 home / 114 away

1.20

creates per match

1.39

1.34

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Bristol Rovers

1.20

Plymouth

1.39

allows per match

Bristol Rovers

1.34

Plymouth

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bristol Rovers+0.00on par

Plymouth+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol Rovers ↓

Plymouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Bristol Rovers or draw

63%

Bristol Rovers or Plymouth

74%

Draw or Plymouth

63%

Winning margin

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+

17%

Plymouth wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals

74%

Bristol Rovers 2+ goals

39%

Bristol Rovers 3+ goals

15%

Plymouth 1+ goals

74%

Plymouth 2+ goals

39%

Plymouth 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)

50%

Plymouth (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol Rovers at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.34 · 133 matches

Plymouth away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.50 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol Rovers attack 1.20 + Plymouth defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.35

Plymouth attack 1.39 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Bristol Rovers scores more

37%

level

26%

Plymouth scores more

37%

Bristol Rovers at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Bristol Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

J. van Stappershoef

Bristol Rovers · G

8.7

Match Events

7'

A. Kilgour↳ L. McCormick

26'

40'

45'

46'

46'

64'

D. Telford← L. Jephcott

68'

Edward Upson

75'

J. Ayunga← B. Hanlan

77'

C. Hargreaves← L. McCormick

84'

L. MacLeod← C. Grant

84'

F. Nouble← T. Fornah

85'

Z. Westbrooke↳ S. Nicholson

90+2'

J. Barrett← E. Upson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BristolPlymouth

Overview

36%Possession64%

17Total Shots24

8Corners9

10Fouls11

Shots

17Total Shots24

6On Target7

7Off Target8

4Blocked9

9Inside Box17

8Outside Box7

Passing

36%Possession64%

291Total Passes496

193Accurate Passes398

66%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

7Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls11

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides0