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Bristol Rovers vs Oxford United — League One 2018

Bristol Rovers
Bristol Rovers
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Oxford United
Oxford United
8/13/2022League OneLeague One · Round 3Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 133+ matches

Bristol Rovers35%
×Draw26%
Oxford United39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bristol Rovers
1.28
Oxford United
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 133 home / 137 away

creates per match

Bristol Rovers
1.17
Oxford United
1.36

allows per match

Bristol Rovers
1.33
Oxford United
1.39

finishing

Bristol Rovers+0.00on par
Oxford United+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol Rovers ↓

Oxford United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Bristol Rovers or draw
61%
Bristol Rovers or Oxford United
74%
Draw or Oxford United
65%

Winning margin

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+
15%
Oxford United wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals
72%
Bristol Rovers 2+ goals
37%
Bristol Rovers 3+ goals
14%
Oxford United 1+ goals
74%
Oxford United 2+ goals
39%
Oxford United 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)
48%
Oxford United (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol Rovers at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.33 · 133 matches

Oxford United away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.39 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol Rovers attack 1.17 + Oxford United defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.28

Oxford United attack 1.36 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bristol Rovers scores more
35%
level
26%
Oxford United scores more
39%

Oxford United at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Oxford United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Bristol Rovers 1–0 Oxford United

Bristol Rovers beat Oxford United 1-0 in League One on August 13, 2022.

The match was played at Memorial Stadium in Bristol, Gloucestershire.