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Bristol Rovers vs Northampton — League Two 2018

Bristol Rovers
Bristol Rovers
Preview
15:00
Northampton
Northampton
3/26/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 37Memorial Stadium
Big match
42%
Bristol Rovers
model favours
42%26%32%

Bristol Rovers score first in only 27% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Bristol Rovers42%
×Draw26%
Northampton32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bristol Rovers
1.43
Northampton
1.21

Bristol Rovers creates 18% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 88 away

creates per match

Bristol Rovers
1.61
Northampton
1.24

allows per match

Bristol Rovers
1.18
Northampton
1.24

finishing

Bristol Rovers+0.00on par
Northampton+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol Rovers ↓

Northampton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Bristol Rovers or draw
68%
Bristol Rovers or Northampton
74%
Draw or Northampton
58%

Winning margin

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+
20%
Northampton wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals
76%
Bristol Rovers 2+ goals
42%
Bristol Rovers 3+ goals
17%
Northampton 1+ goals
70%
Northampton 2+ goals
34%
Northampton 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)
57%
Northampton (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol Rovers at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.18 · 57 matches

Northampton away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.24 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol Rovers attack 1.61 + Northampton defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.43

Northampton attack 1.24 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bristol Rovers scores more
42%
level
26%
Northampton scores more
32%

Bristol Rovers at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bristol Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 82% of Bristol Rovers’s matches
  • 73% of Bristol Rovers’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Bristol Rovers
Defensively solid
Northampton
Balanced
51%PossessionBiggest gap48%
66%Pass accuracy65%
11.5Shots11.9
1.21xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Bristol RoversNorthampton

Head-to-head

8 previous meetings

5
Bristol Rovers
1
Draws
2
Northampton
Avg goals: 2.4BTTS: 63%
1–21–01–32–11–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Rovers
DDLW
Northampton
WDLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bristol Rovers vs Northampton — Match Preview

Bristol Rovers face Northampton on March 26, 2027 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Bristol Rovers host Northampton at Memorial Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.