Bristol Rovers 2–1 Northampton: Result & Stats

Bristol Rovers

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Northampton

A. Evans 59'

J. Grant 53'

S. Hoskins 39' (pen)

11/13/2021

League Two · Round 16Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Bristol Rovers42%

×Draw26%

Northampton32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bristol RoversExpected goals in this matchNorthampton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.21

Bristol Rovers

1.43

Northampton

1.21

Bristol Rovers creates 18% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 88 away

1.61

creates per match

1.24

1.18

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Bristol Rovers

1.61

Northampton

1.24

allows per match

Bristol Rovers

1.18

Northampton

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bristol Rovers+0.00on par

Northampton+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol Rovers ↓

Northampton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Bristol Rovers or draw

68%

Bristol Rovers or Northampton

74%

Draw or Northampton

58%

Winning margin

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+

20%

Northampton wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals

76%

Bristol Rovers 2+ goals

42%

Bristol Rovers 3+ goals

17%

Northampton 1+ goals

70%

Northampton 2+ goals

34%

Northampton 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)

57%

Northampton (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol Rovers at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.18 · 57 matches

Northampton away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.24 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol Rovers attack 1.61 + Northampton defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.43

Northampton attack 1.24 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bristol Rovers scores more

42%

level

26%

Northampton scores more

32%

Bristol Rovers at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bristol Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

J. Grant

Bristol Rovers · M

7.6

Match Events

12'

Glenn Whelan

39'

S. HoskinsPenalty

49'

Cian Harries

53'

J. Grant↳ H. Anderson

59'

A. Evans

64'

N. Anderton← J. Grant

67'

67'

71'

74'

74'

76'

D. Connolly← M. Pinnock

77'

M. Harriman← D. Revan

77'

N. Kabamba← J. Flores

89'

A. Collins← S. Nicholson

90+5'

Liam Roberts

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BristolNorthampton

Overview

53%Possession47%

10Total Shots7

5Corners4

8Fouls14

Shots

10Total Shots7

5On Target3

4Off Target2

1Blocked2

8Inside Box5

2Outside Box2

Passing

53%Possession47%

305Total Passes269

182Accurate Passes164

60%Pass Accuracy61%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls14

4Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

6Offsides4