Bristol Rovers 2–2 Morecambe: Result & Stats

Bristol Rovers

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Morecambe

B. Thomas 80'

R. Loft 29'

K. Phillips 53'

J. Weir 12'

9/3/2022

League One · Round 7Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Bristol Rovers51%

×Draw24%

Morecambe25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bristol RoversExpected goals in this matchMorecambe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.11

Bristol Rovers

1.69

Morecambe

1.11

Bristol Rovers creates 52% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 46 away

1.20

creates per match

0.89

1.34

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Bristol Rovers

1.20

Morecambe

0.89

allows per match

Bristol Rovers

1.34

Morecambe

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bristol Rovers+0.00on par

Morecambe+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol Rovers ↓

Morecambe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Bristol Rovers or draw

75%

Bristol Rovers or Morecambe

76%

Draw or Morecambe

49%

Winning margin

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+

27%

Morecambe wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals

82%

Bristol Rovers 2+ goals

50%

Bristol Rovers 3+ goals

24%

Morecambe 1+ goals

67%

Morecambe 2+ goals

30%

Morecambe 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)

67%

Morecambe (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol Rovers at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.34 · 133 matches

Morecambe away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.17 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol Rovers attack 1.20 + Morecambe defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.69

Morecambe attack 0.89 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Bristol Rovers scores more

51%

level

24%

Morecambe scores more

25%

Bristol Rovers at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Bristol Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

A. Collins

Bristol Rovers · F

8.0

Match Events

12'

J. Weir↳ D. Love

16'

Liam Gibson

29'

R. Loft↳ A. Collins

53'

K. Phillips↳ C. Watts

62'

L. McCormick← S. Finley

62'

H. Saunders← J. Marquis

71'

T. Clarke← P. Coutts

71'

H. Anderson← L. Gordon

72'

S. Jasper← A. Kilgour

75'

D. Connolly← J. Taylor

80'

B. Thomas↳ H. Saunders

82'

87'

89'

90+5'

90+1'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BristolMorecambe

Overview

61%Possession39%

23Total Shots8

11Corners2

10Fouls14

Shots

23Total Shots8

7On Target4

8Off Target3

8Blocked1

17Inside Box5

6Outside Box3

Passing

61%Possession39%

404Total Passes271

287Accurate Passes161

71%Pass Accuracy59%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

10Fouls14

2Yellow Cards1

0Offsides5