Bristol Rovers 0–2 Milton Keynes Dons

Bristol Rovers

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Milton Keynes Dons

M. Dean 90'

M. Eisa 3' (pen)

2/4/2023

League One · Round 30Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Bristol Rovers41%

×Draw26%

Milton Keynes Dons33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bristol RoversExpected goals in this matchMilton Keynes Dons

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.27

Bristol Rovers

1.45

Milton Keynes Dons

1.27

Bristol Rovers creates 14% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 28 away

1.35

creates per match

1.18

1.35

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Bristol Rovers

1.35

Milton Keynes Dons

1.18

allows per match

Bristol Rovers

1.35

Milton Keynes Dons

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bristol Rovers+0.00on par

Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol Rovers ↓

Milton Keynes Dons →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Bristol Rovers or draw

67%

Bristol Rovers or Milton Keynes Dons

74%

Draw or Milton Keynes Dons

59%

Winning margin

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+

20%

Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals

77%

Bristol Rovers 2+ goals

42%

Bristol Rovers 3+ goals

18%

Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals

72%

Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals

36%

Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)

56%

Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol Rovers at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.35 · 26 matches

Milton Keynes Dons away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.54 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol Rovers attack 1.35 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.45

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.18 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bristol Rovers scores more

41%

level

26%

Milton Keynes Dons scores more

33%

Bristol Rovers at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bristol Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

M. Eisa

Milton Keynes Dons · F

7.9

Match Events

3'

M. EisaPenalty

18'

45+2'

46'

58'

63'

L. McCormick← S. Sinclair

68'

Edmond-Paris Maghoma

70'

B. Johnson← J. McEachran

76'

Bradley Johnson

76'

Jonathan Leko

76'

H. Anderson← L. Gordon

77'

J. Marquis← J. Coburn

84'

M. Dean← J. Leko

86'

L. Bogarde← G. Ward

90+4'

Max Dean

90+2'

H. Lawrence← S. Kaikai

90+2'

W. Grigg← M. Eisa

90'

M. Dean↳ M. Eisa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BristolMilton

Overview

61%Possession39%

6Total Shots11

3Corners5

11Fouls17

Shots

6Total Shots11

1On Target4

4Off Target1

1Blocked6

3Inside Box7

3Outside Box4

Passing

61%Possession39%

43Total Passes27

14Accurate Passes7

33%Pass Accuracy26%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls17

2Yellow Cards5

1Offsides0