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Bristol Rovers vs Milton Keynes Dons — League One 2018

Bristol Rovers
Bristol Rovers
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Milton Keynes Dons
Milton Keynes Dons
10/12/2019League OneLeague One · Round 13Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Bristol Rovers36%
×Draw27%
Milton Keynes Dons37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bristol Rovers
1.28
Milton Keynes Dons
1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 133 home / 95 away

creates per match

Bristol Rovers
1.17
Milton Keynes Dons
1.27

allows per match

Bristol Rovers
1.33
Milton Keynes Dons
1.40

finishing

Bristol Rovers+0.00on par
Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol Rovers ↓

Milton Keynes Dons →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Bristol Rovers or draw
63%
Bristol Rovers or Milton Keynes Dons
73%
Draw or Milton Keynes Dons
64%

Winning margin

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+
16%
Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals
72%
Bristol Rovers 2+ goals
37%
Bristol Rovers 3+ goals
14%
Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals
73%
Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals
37%
Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)
49%
Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol Rovers at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.33 · 133 matches

Milton Keynes Dons away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.40 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol Rovers attack 1.17 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.28

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.27 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Bristol Rovers scores more
36%
level
27%
Milton Keynes Dons scores more
37%

Milton Keynes Dons at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Milton Keynes Dons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bristol Rovers vs Milton Keynes Dons

Bristol Rovers beat Milton Keynes Dons 1-0 in League One on October 12, 2019.

The match was played at Memorial Stadium in Bristol, Gloucestershire.